The importance (and problem) of demographics in church revitalization

One of the most crucial tasks in leading a local church to revitalization is reconnecting with the community in which the congregation ministers. This is absolutely crucial because most churches in need of revitalization have, at some time and in some way, severed most or even all of the community connections they once had. Perhaps they were jerks to the neighbors. Perhaps they chose not to get involved in the community festival. Perhaps they stopped inviting the neighborhood to their events and activities. Perhaps they simply tailored their ministries, programs, and worship styles to people who already belonged to the church. Reconnecting, then, allows the church to identify and address needs in the community, which builds favor with neighbors and opens the door for relationships to be forged, and these relationships are the conduit by which the gospel is shared and new disciples are made. Simply put, the church will not be revitalized if it does not reconnect with its community.

The problem is that reconnecting can be a monumental task, and many leaders understandably do not know where to begin. The first, obvious answer is to start by introducing yourself to the neighbors. However, forging relationships with the neighbors can be a slow and arduous process. It takes time to earn enough trust and respect for them to share the needs that they see in the community. Thus, this strategy generally must be supplemented by reaching out to community leaders (e.g., mayor, city councilperson(s), school superintendents and administrators, business leaders and studying demographics.

Demographics such as median household income, home ownership, median age, household size, number of children, single householder, etc. can be invaluable in identifying unmet needs and developing ministries to address them. Would the community benefit more from free daycare or a senior center? Could it benefit from a Habitat for Humanity-like ministry, a tutoring program, English-language lessons, or even a citizenship class? Should we worship with a pop, country, hip-hop, or mariachi style of music? Demographics can suggest answers to these questions and more.

Moreover, the usefulness of demographics actually increases over time. By monitoring how demographics change over time, the revitalizing leader can identify trends and so begin to anticipate the needs that the community will have in five, ten, or twenty years. Just as community leaders use demographics to predict the need for a new freeway, revitalizing leaders can use them to plan new services, ministries, and church plants, just to name a few. Just as Wayne Gretzky became a great hockey player by going to where the puck was going to be, such anticipation may enable a church which has been historically stagnant or declining to experience a sudden resurgence.

Perhaps the most common source for demographic data is the US Census Bureau (and/or local equivalent). The government has a tremendous amount of information which can be accessed, often for free. In the US, City-Data.com is another tremendous resource. Enter your city or ZIP code, and you can find a wealth of information. So also, real estate agents make it their business to know what is going on in their communities. Invite your local agent to coffee and pick his/her brain. Probably my favorite source right now, however, is the school. Schools track and use all sorts of demographics on a daily basis, and they are generally happy to provide them (especially if you build a relationship with them)! More importantly, schools track data on kids who will be adults in ten or fifteen years. Thus, examining their demographic data is like having a window into the future.

Demographics, however, do have some weaknesses. The most significant of these is illustrated in the graphs below, which I generated as part of some recent research into the ethnic makeup of the neighborhood where my church ministers.

The graph above represents the races of the households in the two census tracts adjacent to our church. Judging by this, one might conclude that we live and minister in a primarily white, English-speaking neighborhood. However, given the data below about the languages spoken by students in our neighborhood elementary school, this would be a terrible misconception.

The problem is that different entities track different things at different times and at different levels of fidelity. City-Data.com, for instance, tracks data at ZIP code level, but you can use the US Census Bureau’s online tools to drill down to your own block. In the community where I minister, this represents a dramatic difference of scope. While a large church might be able to focus on ministering to the more than 30,000 people in our ZIP code, the church I lead does not have that capacity. Thus, we focus on our neighborhood, a cluster of about ten census tracts within 2 miles of our facility. Moreover, while there are a number of identifiable needs across our ZIP code, the people in our neighborhood do not necessarily have the same needs.

It is therefore imperative to pull demographic data from a variety of sources. Moreover, the closer your source is to the actual community, the more accurate picture it will paint. Demographics, then, can be profoundly useful in steering revitalization, but ultimately, your best source for gauging the needs of the community is still talking to the people who live there.